Trade in 2020 – the initial results and possible scenarios forward

After an already sluggish 2019, a major upturn was expected in global growth and trade in 2020. As can be seen, the real trade value never recovered to the pre-financial crises’ trajectory. The trend for 2010 – onwards was significantly below the prior trajectory. Our prior forecast predicted it to be above the CAGR 2010-19 and global trade to reach 25.2 trillion USD in 2029. COVID-19 pandemic, the biggest black swan in a century, destroyed it. Global trade collapsed in Q1 of 2020 though asymmetrically