Energy Transition Outlook 2023 – Maritime Forecast to 2050

Maritime Forecast to 2050 is one out of DNV’s suite of Energy Transition Outlook reports. This latest edition provides an independent outlook of shipping’s energy future. It also examines how the industry will be impacted by: new International Maritime Organization (IMO) ambitions for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping; the regulations that will be developed as a follow-up; and by recently adopted EU regulations.

The impact will be increased costs for individual shipowners from technology, carbon-neutral fuels, and/or carbon price. Commercial drivers will also be important, as GHG performance will affect commercial attractiveness and long-term profitability. This will have a large effect on shipowner decarbonization plans and fuel strategies. The most important steps towards zero-emission shipping should be taken now in what will be a decisive decade for shipping.

The report predicts that meeting the IMO GHG goal for 2030 will require shipping to secure 30–40% of the estimated annual global supply of carbon-neutral fuels by then – a daunting, nearly impossible task considering that other sectors will compete for the same fuel supply. Thus, whatever can be achieved to reduce energy consumption is a no-brainer. Operational energy-efficiency measures like speed reduction, route optimization, and hull and propeller cleaning should be implemented wherever possible.